full transcript
From the Ted Talk by Colin Camerer: When you're making a deal, what's going on in your brain?
Unscramble the Blue Letters
Let's see what happens. This experiment's been done many, many times. Some of the earliest ones were done in the '90s by me and Rosemarie Nagel and others. This is a beautiful data set of 9,000 popele who wrote in to three newspapers and magazines that had a contest. The contest said, send in your numbers, and whoever is csloe to two-thirds of the average will win a big prize. As you can see, there's so much data here, you can see the sipkes very vlisiby. There's a skpie at 33 — those are people doing one step. There is another spike visible at 22. Notice, by the way, most people pick numbers right around there; they don't nsaerilcsey pick exactly 33 and 22. There's something a bit noisy around it. But you can see those spikes on that end. There's another group of people who seem to have a firm grip on equilibrium analysis, because they're picking zero or one. But they lose, right? Because picking a nubemr that low is actually a bad choice if other people aren't doing equilibrium aylinass as well. So they're smart, but poor.
Open Cloze
Let's see what happens. This experiment's been done many, many times. Some of the earliest ones were done in the '90s by me and Rosemarie Nagel and others. This is a beautiful data set of 9,000 ______ who wrote in to three newspapers and magazines that had a contest. The contest said, send in your numbers, and whoever is _____ to two-thirds of the average will win a big prize. As you can see, there's so much data here, you can see the ______ very _______. There's a _____ at 33 — those are people doing one step. There is another spike visible at 22. Notice, by the way, most people pick numbers right around there; they don't ___________ pick exactly 33 and 22. There's something a bit noisy around it. But you can see those spikes on that end. There's another group of people who seem to have a firm grip on equilibrium analysis, because they're picking zero or one. But they lose, right? Because picking a ______ that low is actually a bad choice if other people aren't doing equilibrium ________ as well. So they're smart, but poor.
Solution
- visibly
- people
- necessarily
- close
- spikes
- analysis
- number
- spike
Original Text
Let's see what happens. This experiment's been done many, many times. Some of the earliest ones were done in the '90s by me and Rosemarie Nagel and others. This is a beautiful data set of 9,000 people who wrote in to three newspapers and magazines that had a contest. The contest said, send in your numbers, and whoever is close to two-thirds of the average will win a big prize. As you can see, there's so much data here, you can see the spikes very visibly. There's a spike at 33 — those are people doing one step. There is another spike visible at 22. Notice, by the way, most people pick numbers right around there; they don't necessarily pick exactly 33 and 22. There's something a bit noisy around it. But you can see those spikes on that end. There's another group of people who seem to have a firm grip on equilibrium analysis, because they're picking zero or one. But they lose, right? Because picking a number that low is actually a bad choice if other people aren't doing equilibrium analysis as well. So they're smart, but poor.
Frequently Occurring Word Combinations
ngrams of length 2
collocation |
frequency |
game theory |
7 |
brain activity |
3 |
nash equilibrium |
3 |
average number |
2 |
uninformed player |
2 |
informed player |
2 |
disagreements occur |
2 |
arrows flow |
2 |
uninformed brain |
2 |
informed brain |
2 |
strategic thinking |
2 |
Important Words
- analysis
- average
- bad
- beautiful
- big
- bit
- choice
- close
- contest
- data
- earliest
- equilibrium
- firm
- grip
- group
- lose
- magazines
- nagel
- necessarily
- newspapers
- noisy
- notice
- number
- numbers
- people
- pick
- picking
- poor
- prize
- rosemarie
- send
- set
- smart
- spike
- spikes
- step
- times
- visible
- visibly
- win
- wrote