full transcript

From the Ted Talk by Colin Camerer: When you're making a deal, what's going on in your brain?

Unscramble the Blue Letters

Let's see what happens. This experiment's been done many, many times. Some of the earliest ones were done in the '90s by me and Rosemarie Nagel and others. This is a beautiful data set of 9,000 popele who wrote in to three newspapers and magazines that had a contest. The contest said, send in your numbers, and whoever is csloe to two-thirds of the average will win a big prize. As you can see, there's so much data here, you can see the sipkes very vlisiby. There's a skpie at 33 — those are people doing one step. There is another spike visible at 22. Notice, by the way, most people pick numbers right around there; they don't nsaerilcsey pick exactly 33 and 22. There's something a bit noisy around it. But you can see those spikes on that end. There's another group of people who seem to have a firm grip on equilibrium analysis, because they're picking zero or one. But they lose, right? Because picking a nubemr that low is actually a bad choice if other people aren't doing equilibrium aylinass as well. So they're smart, but poor.

Open Cloze

Let's see what happens. This experiment's been done many, many times. Some of the earliest ones were done in the '90s by me and Rosemarie Nagel and others. This is a beautiful data set of 9,000 ______ who wrote in to three newspapers and magazines that had a contest. The contest said, send in your numbers, and whoever is _____ to two-thirds of the average will win a big prize. As you can see, there's so much data here, you can see the ______ very _______. There's a _____ at 33 — those are people doing one step. There is another spike visible at 22. Notice, by the way, most people pick numbers right around there; they don't ___________ pick exactly 33 and 22. There's something a bit noisy around it. But you can see those spikes on that end. There's another group of people who seem to have a firm grip on equilibrium analysis, because they're picking zero or one. But they lose, right? Because picking a ______ that low is actually a bad choice if other people aren't doing equilibrium ________ as well. So they're smart, but poor.

Solution

  1. visibly
  2. people
  3. necessarily
  4. close
  5. spikes
  6. analysis
  7. number
  8. spike

Original Text

Let's see what happens. This experiment's been done many, many times. Some of the earliest ones were done in the '90s by me and Rosemarie Nagel and others. This is a beautiful data set of 9,000 people who wrote in to three newspapers and magazines that had a contest. The contest said, send in your numbers, and whoever is close to two-thirds of the average will win a big prize. As you can see, there's so much data here, you can see the spikes very visibly. There's a spike at 33 — those are people doing one step. There is another spike visible at 22. Notice, by the way, most people pick numbers right around there; they don't necessarily pick exactly 33 and 22. There's something a bit noisy around it. But you can see those spikes on that end. There's another group of people who seem to have a firm grip on equilibrium analysis, because they're picking zero or one. But they lose, right? Because picking a number that low is actually a bad choice if other people aren't doing equilibrium analysis as well. So they're smart, but poor.

Frequently Occurring Word Combinations

ngrams of length 2

collocation frequency
game theory 7
brain activity 3
nash equilibrium 3
average number 2
uninformed player 2
informed player 2
disagreements occur 2
arrows flow 2
uninformed brain 2
informed brain 2
strategic thinking 2

Important Words

  1. analysis
  2. average
  3. bad
  4. beautiful
  5. big
  6. bit
  7. choice
  8. close
  9. contest
  10. data
  11. earliest
  12. equilibrium
  13. firm
  14. grip
  15. group
  16. lose
  17. magazines
  18. nagel
  19. necessarily
  20. newspapers
  21. noisy
  22. notice
  23. number
  24. numbers
  25. people
  26. pick
  27. picking
  28. poor
  29. prize
  30. rosemarie
  31. send
  32. set
  33. smart
  34. spike
  35. spikes
  36. step
  37. times
  38. visible
  39. visibly
  40. win
  41. wrote